Postseason Watch: Bracket, tiebreakers and more
Monday's MLB action included a pair of contests between division rivals in playoff contention -- and both games featured huge offensive performances from the visitors.
The Astros rallied from an early 3-0 deficit against the Rangers, putting up a six-run seventh inning to power themselves to a 13-6 win in Arlington and move into a virtual tie for first place in the American League West. In the AL Central, rookie Royce Lewis hit his third grand slam in eight games as the Twins routed the Guardians 20-6 to extend their division lead.
And on the National League side, Justin Steele pitched a gem for the Cubs, tossing eight scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts in Chicago's 5-0 shutout of the Giants -- a key win for the North Siders in the NL Wild Card race.
While a lot can happen in the standings between now and when the postseason starts on Oct. 3, here is what the playoff picture looks like heading into Tuesday's games.
Reminder: As part of the collective bargaining agreement made with the Players Association before the 2022 season, Major League Baseball expanded the postseason field from 10 to 12 teams. Both the AL and NL now have three Wild Card berths (up from two prior to 2022), with the top two seeds in each league receiving first-round byes. The other teams will pair up for the best-of-three Wild Card Series, in which all three games will be played at the home of the higher seed, with winners advancing to the Division Series.
IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY
AL Wild Card Series (starts Oct. 3)
Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
Rangers (6) at Twins (3)
Astros (5) at Rays (4)
Orioles (1) and Mariners (2) have byes
NL Wild Card Series (Oct. 3)
Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
D-backs (6) at Brewers (3)
Cubs (5) at Phillies (4)
Braves (1) and Dodgers (2) have byes
AL Division Series (starts Oct. 7)
Best-of-five format
Rays/Astros at Orioles
Twins/Rangers at Mariners
NL Division Series (starts Oct. 7)
Best-of-five format
Phillies/Cubs at Braves
Brewers/D-backs at Dodgers
TIEBREAKERS
Since 2022, all ties in the standings -- for a division title or Wild Card spot, or to determine playoff seeding -- have been determined solely by a series of mathematical tiebreakers, rather than on the field. A full breakdown of the current methodology can be seen here, but to summarize, the top three elements are, in order: head-to-head record, intradivision record (i.e. within the same division) and then record against opponents in the same league but a different division.
See here for a full breakdown of the key potential tiebreaker scenarios for each contender in 2023.
Here is a look at three examples of how tiebreakers could come into play:
- In the AL West race, the Mariners have already clinched a tiebreaker over the Astros by winning eight of the teams' first 10 matchups, with three to go.
- The Blue Jays (1-2 vs. Texas) would need to win at least three of four over the Rangers from Sept. 11-14 in Toronto to claim the tiebreaker in case they finish deadlocked for the last AL Wild Card spot.
- The Giants have locked up tiebreakers with the Brewers, Reds and Phillies, which could come into play for either the final NL Wild Card spot or seeding. San Francisco also needs to win one of two from Arizona (Sept. 19-20) to clinch the advantage over the D-backs.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Who has clinched: Nobody
Who is next: The Braves (90-46) have a magic number of five to clinch a postseason berth and a magic number of 12 to clinch the NL East. The Dodgers (84-52) have a magic number of 12 to clinch the NL West title.
3 key games from yesterday
3 key games today
Mariners at Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET
Giants at Cubs, 7:40 p.m. ET
Astros at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
Tight races to watch
AL East: Orioles lead Rays by 3 1/2 games
AL West: Mariners lead Astros by percentage points, Rangers by 1 game
NL Central: Brewers lead Cubs by 2 1/2 games
AL Wild Card: Rangers lead Blue Jays by 1/2 game for 3rd berth
NL Wild Card: D-backs lead Reds by percentage points for 3rd berth
Trends of note
Heading up: The Marlins completed a four-game sweep of the Nationals over the weekend and are currently within a half-game of the third NL Wild Card spot. Miami welcomes the Dodgers to town from Tuesday-Thursday.
Heading down: The Rangers' slide continued with Monday's home loss to the Astros. Texas dropped two of three games over the weekend to the Twins and is 4-6 in its past 10 games, the worst mark of any AL contender.
Contender Breakdown
Clinched postseason berth: None
Almost there (90% postseason odds or better): Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, Rays, Brewers, Phillies, Twins, Astros
In good shape (50-89% postseason odds): Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays
In the mix (10-49% postseason odds): D-backs, Giants, Marlins, Reds
Still alive (Postseason odds above 0%): Red Sox, Guardians, Padres, Yankees, Mets, Tigers